"If there were an equivalent to the METR graph for 'proportion of 3D printer value which a 3D printer can generate', and that was a straight line that implied we got to 99%+ in 4 years, I'd be pretty spooked!"

The METR graph measures the human time horizon of tasks machines can complete. For some tasks, 3D printers have extremely long time horizons. For an intuition pump on this, see my excellent post: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ghhJh6SBYXxDktnZX/metr-time-horizon-2-0-the-benchmark-you-ve-been-waiting-for

If we were interested in "which proportion of value" AI systems are generating in the economy, a better measure of this than inferring from the METR graph would be AI revenue as a % of GDP. Which is about 0.1%.

Good job S!

+1 to Vasco's comment. Why would you want such a high giving multiplier?

Great post, Vasco. I strongly upvoted it.

I love how principles first this bulldog guy is!

Where can I donate to the Naviation Fund? I've never heard of this and can't find them on the internet.

Should forecasting receive more or less EA funding?

Marcus' points are good

:) sounds right to me. A couple factors here that might clear things up.

1) I probably want to donate to both GH and AW charities across my life, so I don't think the results of this donation election counterfactually affected my lifetime donations much.

2) I'm a student and this donation was relatively small compared to future ones I expect to make.