Why am I not bullish on civilizational refuges for reducing bio xrisk? I believe bio xrisk is concentrated in E2H scenarios or AI takeover, and neither of these things benefit much from refuges. For both of these threat models, there is value in refuges but only if they are a safe staging area to take back control of the environment or against an AI, which means you probably need a full industrial base worth of people/infrastructure to be protected. Society-wide biohardening and PPE is therefore the better option even on purely longtermist grounds (and has the additional property of also being much more valuable on non-longtermist grounds as well!)

I’d be keen for great people to apply to the Deputy Director role ($180-210k/y, remote) at the Mirror Biology Dialogues Fund. I spoke a bit about mirror bacteria on the 80k podcast, James Smith also had a recent episode on it. I generally think this is among the most important roles in the biosecurity space and I’ve been working with the MBDF team for a while now and am impressed by what they’re getting done.

People might be surprised to hear that I put ballpark 1% p(doom) on mirror bacteria alone at the start of 2024. That risk has been cut substantially by the scientific consensus that has formed against building it since then, but there is some remaining risk that the boundaries are not drawn far enough from the brink that bad actors could access it. Having a great person in this role would help ensure a wider safety margin.

Mirror life is a concrete example of something I would consider an existential risk if we were unprepared. I like Niko and Fin's writeup: https://press.asimov.com/articles/mirror-life

Mirror phages could help reduce the biomass of mirror bacteria in the environment (perhaps substantially), but they couldn't drive the mirror bacteria to extinction, fully sterilize a contaminated area, or prevent the initial invasion of an environment. I'd therefore be reluctant to call mirror phages a 'safeguard' as opposed to something that is helpful but inadequate on its own. (mirror phages as a potential future therapeutic are discussed in Chapter 5, section 5.3, page 117 of the technical report, mirror phages as environmental countermeasures are discussed in Chapter 8, section 8.6, pages 188-189)

Also 'immune to all our antibiotics, viruses, and immune defenses' isn't quite right. Some antibiotics are achiral or racemic mixtures, and certain parts of our immune system might still attack mirror bacteria (e.g. some parts of the complement system).

Fwiw my (admittedly vibes-based) sense is that Palantir was a deliberate push to fill the niche of 'surveillance company' in a way that had guardrails and civil liberties protected.

Others have made this point (e.g. Carl Shulman), but adding it here briefly: Since humans are K-strategists, our risk/reward psychology will be very risk-averse. The fitness cost of getting a limb ripped off heavily outweighs any fitness advantage of a good meal or mating opportunity. But for r-strategists, one good meal or one mating opportunity might easily be worth a high chance of losing a limb (since the fitness costs/benefits are far more skewed for rare upside). If the fitness cost/benefits are different and skewed in this way, we should expect the reward/punishment signal to evolve to be in line with this, making the psychology of an r-strategist potentially very alien to us.

Probably Good, 80k, ACE, GiveWell, Charity Entrepreneurship

Because you've been a public servant who took on the responsibility of shutting down the Soviet bioweapons program, securing loose nuclear material, and kickstarting a wildly successful early career program while at the DoD, I need to know: is it ever difficult being so awesome?

And, what would your advice be for younger folks aiming to follow in your footsteps?

Just wanted to give my hearty +1 to approaching biosecurity issues with humility and striving to gain important context (which EAs often lack!)

Hi, thanks for raising these questions. I lead Open Philanthropy’s biosecurity and pandemic prevention work and I was the investigator of this grant. For context, in September last year, I got an introduction to Helena along with some information about work they were doing in the health policy space. Before recommending the grant, I did some background reference calls on the impact claims they were making, considered similar concerns to ones in this post, and ultimately felt there was enough of a case to place a hits-based bet (especially given the more permissive funding bar at the time).

Just so there’s no confusion: I think it’s easy to misread the nepotism claim as saying that I or Open Phil have a conflict of interest with Helena, and want to clarify that this is not the case. My total interactions with Helena have been three phone calls and some email, all related to health security work.